Monday, August 24, 2009

STI textbook Elliot Wave

Alert, sell all by 2700.

http://sites.google.com/site/ksericpro/home/st

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

When to Enter/Exit using divergence





Notice when the red arrows move away from each other (aka higher price , lower strength), the share price usually plunged after that?

Notice when the blue arrows move towards each other (aka lower price, higher strength), the share prices usually rally after that ?

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Buy Property Cannot Go Wrong One?

If you thinking of entering into the property market, here are 6 flaws to take note.
I read it in today's paper, so just write here for those thinking of buying one.

1) Never do Homework


One 99-years lease mass-market condo outside D9, D10 and D11 priced at 1150psf! Those who rush in obviously didn't do much or zero homework. There are other condos priced around 900psf near vicinity. If they bought at 1150psf, how much they hope to sell?


2) Paying Higher than market valuation

Selling price doesn't equal to bank valuation. If you bought a property for$ 900k, hoping for bank to loan you the 80%, better check what is the bank's valuation first. The bank would only loan 80% of its own market valuation of the property you bought. In this case if they value the property at $800k, shortfall will occur.

3) Paying Deposit without Loan Approval

Its better to get a loan-in-principle from a bank before you place a deposit of 5%. A rough gauge, if your family income is $8000, then the maximum loan a bank could lend you is 100 times which works out to be $800,000.

4) No Ready/Backup Cash

Many of the specu-vestor/investor thinks that they can use the rental yield to offset the monthly instalment. In ideal case, it works if rental do not flucuate too much. If rental income falls or worse no tenants, you do need to have ready cash to tide through.

5) Interest do not stay the same

In fact housing floating interest based on SIBOR or SOR rates increase with economies. Low interest rate at 2% plus a fixed amount today will increase with a picking-up economy. At the peak of 2007, interest rate could go up as high as 4% plus a fixed amount.

6) Hat too big

Your monthly instalment should not be above 35% of your family income. A $1 million property loan should be back up be a $12,000 family income.

Elliot Wave Revelation

Wow I have learnt something new using the power of elliot wave.




Click here for FULL article

Monday, August 17, 2009

RUN for your Life

With sti plunging 85 points yesterday and DOW dropping 186 last night, we could see sti drop to 2486-2500. If you are brave enough, nimble some. If2486 breaks, cut loss.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

New Calls - Stay out First watch

New Calls

RafflesEdu
levels:0 62, 0.645, 0.675

Parkway
levels: 1.86

Rotary
levels:1.10, 1.18

CDLHTrust
levels:1.03, 1.07

Sold Positions

Wilmar 6.35 (bgt 6.54), 1 lot test water
ASLMarine 1.045 (bgt 0.999167)
CrapLand 3.61 (bgt 3.67)
Wingtai 1.57 (bgt 1.67)

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Position Update

Sold Positions

Capland 3.73 (bgt 3.69)
Olam 2.59 (bgt 2.515)
Rotary 1.16 (bgt 1.10625)
Yanlord 2.51 (bgt 2.53)
NOL 1.70 (bgt 1.71)
Ezra 1.34 (bgt 1.35)

Existing Positions

EzionHlgs
Wingtai
ASL Marine

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Position Update

Sold Position

Jaya 0.48 (bgt 0.47)
Tat Hong 1.23 (bgt 1.21)

Existing Position

Rotary
Capland
Olam
Yanlord
NOL

Buy CAPLAND and YANLORD first thing in the morning

buy first ask later

CAPLAND
levels 3.51, 3.6, 3.7

YANLORD
levels: 2.44, 2.5


Pls see site below for charts. Blogger buggy.

http://sites.google.com/site/ksericpro/stocks-in-focus

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Position Update - That's it I am staying out

I am cashing out. Market very bearish. Kana Internal Injuries so got to recuperate. Lose 4 days in a row, no joke.

Sold Positions

Capland 3.69 (bgt 3.73)
DBS 12.68 (bgt 12.78)
Yanlord 2.46 (bgt 2.5225)
CapCom 0.875 (bgt 0.8795)

Monday, August 10, 2009

Position Update

Taking bluechips.

DBS
Capland
Yanlord

Sold Positions
Wilmar 6.21 (bgt 6.28)

Only for risk takers

Properties and banks are battered, should see some revenge from them.

Capitaland
levels: 3.51, 3.75, 3.83, 3.89, 4
DBS
levels: 12.34, 12.5, 12.8, 13, 13.7
Olam
levels: 2.28, 2.37, 2.40, 2.55
RaffleEdu
levels: 0.60, 0.62, 0.645
UOB
levels: 15.7, 15.94
Sinktel
levels: 3.09, 3.16, 3.31. 3.5

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Saturday, August 8, 2009

5 fatal flaws of traders

Five Fatal Flaws of Trading

By Jeffrey Kennedy


Close to ninety percent of all traders lose money. The remaining ten percent somehow manage to either break even or even turn a profit – and more importantly, do it consistently. How do they do that?

That's an age-old question. While there is no magic formula, one of Elliott Wave International's senior instructors Jeffrey Kennedy has identified five fundamental flaws that, in his opinion, stop most traders from being consistently successful. We don't claim to have found The Holy Grail of trading here, but sometimes a single idea can change a person's life. Maybe you'll find one in Jeffrey's take on trading? We sincerely hope so.

Why Do Traders Lose?

If you’ve been trading for a long time, you no doubt have felt that a monstrous, invisible hand sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. It doesn’t seem to matter how many books you buy, how many seminars you attend or how many hours you spend analyzing price charts, you just can’t seem to prevent that invisible hand from depleting your trading account funds.

Which brings us to the question: Why do traders lose? Or maybe we should ask, 'How do you stop the Hand?' Whether you are a seasoned professional or just thinking about opening your first trading account, the ability to stop the Hand is proportional to how well you understand and overcome the Five Fatal Flaws of trading. For each fatal flaw represents a finger on the invisible hand that wreaks havoc with your trading account.

Fatal Flaw No. 1 – Lack of Methodology

If you aim to be a consistently successful trader, then you must have a defined trading methodology, which is simply a clear and concise way of looking at markets. Guessing or going by gut instinct won’t work over the long run. If you don’t have a defined trading methodology, then you don’t have a way to know what constitutes a buy or sell signal. Moreover, you can’t even consistently correctly identify the trend.

How to overcome this fatal flaw? Answer: Write down your methodology. Define in writing what your analytical tools are and, more importantly, how you use them. It doesn’t matter whether you use the Wave Principle, Point and Figure charts, Stochastics, RSI or a combination of all of the above. What does matter is that you actually take the effort to define it (i.e., what constitutes a buy, a sell, your trailing stop and instructions on exiting a position). And the best hint I can give you regarding developing a defined trading methodology is this: If you can’t fit it on the back of a business card, it’s probably too complicated.

Fatal Flaw No. 2 – Lack of Discipline

When you have clearly outlined and identified your trading methodology, then you must have the discipline to follow your system. A Lack of Discipline in this regard is the second fatal flaw. If the way you view a price chart or evaluate a potential trade setup is different from how you did it a month ago, then you have either not identified your methodology or you lack the discipline to follow the methodology you have identified. The formula for success is to consistently apply a proven methodology. So the best advice I can give you to overcome a lack of discipline is to define a trading methodology that works best for you and follow it religiously.

Fatal Flaw No. 3 – Unrealistic Expectations

Between you and me, nothing makes me angrier than those commercials that say something like, "...$5,000 properly positioned in Natural Gas can give you returns of over $40,000..." Advertisements like this are a disservice to the financial industry as a whole and end up costing uneducated investors a lot more than $5,000. In addition, they help to create the third fatal flaw: Unrealistic Expectations.

Yes, it is possible to experience above-average returns trading your own account. However, it’s difficult to do it without taking on above-average risk. So what is a realistic return to shoot for in your first year as a trader – 50%, 100%, 200%? Whoa, let’s rein in those unrealistic expectations. In my opinion, the goal for every trader their first year out should be not to lose money. In other words, shoot for a 0% return your first year. If you can manage that, then in year two, try to beat the Dow or the S&P. These goals may not be flashy but they are realistic, and if you can learn to live with them – and achieve them – you will fend off the Hand.

Fatal Flaw No. 4 – Lack of Patience

The fourth finger of the invisible hand that robs your trading account is Lack of Patience. I forget where, but I once read that markets trend only 20% of the time, and, from my experience, I would say that this is an accurate statement. So think about it, the other 80% of the time the markets are not trending in one clear direction.

That may explain why I believe that for any given time frame, there are only two or three really good trading opportunities. For example, if you’re a long-term trader, there are typically only two or three compelling tradable moves in a market during any given year. Similarly, if you are a short-term trader, there are only two or three high-quality trade setups in a given week.

All too often, because trading is inherently exciting (and anything involving money usually is exciting), it’s easy to feel like you’re missing the party if you don’t trade a lot. As a result, you start taking trade setups of lesser and lesser quality and begin to over-trade.

How do you overcome this lack of patience? The advice I have found to be most valuable is to remind yourself that every week, there is another trade-of-the-year. In other words, don’t worry about missing an opportunity today, because there will be another one tomorrow, next week and next month ... I promise.

I remember a line from a movie (either Sergeant York with Gary Cooper or The Patriot with Mel Gibson) in which one character gives advice to another on how to shoot a rifle: 'Aim small, miss small.' I offer the same advice in this new context. To aim small requires patience. So be patient, and you’ll miss small."

Fatal Flaw No. 5 – Lack of Money Management

The final fatal flaw to overcome as a trader is a Lack of Money Management, and this topic deserves more than just a few paragraphs, because money management encompasses risk/reward analysis, probability of success and failure, protective stops and so much more. Even so, I would like to address the subject of money management with a focus on risk as a function of portfolio size.

Now the big boys (i.e., the professional traders) tend to limit their risk on any given position to 1% - 3% of their portfolio. If we apply this rule to ourselves, then for every $5,000 we have in our trading account, we can risk only $50-$150 on any given trade. Stocks might be a little different, but a $50 stop in Corn, which is one point, is simply too tight a stop, especially when the 10-day average trading range in Corn recently has been more than 10 points. A more plausible stop might be five points or 10, in which case, depending on what percentage of your total portfolio you want to risk, you would need an account size between $15,000 and $50,000.

Simply put, I believe that many traders begin to trade either under-funded or without sufficient capital in their trading account to trade the markets they choose to trade. And that doesn’t even address the size that they trade (i.e., multiple contracts).

To overcome this fatal flaw, let me expand on the logic from the 'aim small, miss small' movie line. If you have a small trading account, then trade small. You can accomplish this by trading fewer contracts, or trading e-mini contracts or even stocks. Bottom line, on your way to becoming a consistently successful trader, you must realize that one key is longevity. If your risk on any given position is relatively small, then you can weather the rough spots. Conversely, if you risk 25% of your portfolio on each trade, after four consecutive losers, you’re out all together.

Break the Hand’s Grip

Trading successfully is not easy. It’s hard work ... darn hard. And if anyone leads you to believe otherwise, run the other way, and fast. But this hard work can be rewarding, above-average gains are possible and the sense of satisfaction one feels after a few nice trades is absolutely priceless. To get to that point, though, you must first break the fingers of the Hand that is holding you back and stealing money from your trading account. I can guarantee that if you attend to the five fatal flaws I’ve outlined, you won’t be caught red-handed stealing from your own account.

Friday, August 7, 2009

No buy call till sti 2486

STI today totally buang, stay out until further notice. Lost 2 days continuously, had to tie my hands liao. Those still holding Singtel, Look out for support at 3.09

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Position Update

Really have to wait till sti 2486. Suffer bruises and cut today , preserve your capital and fight another day. The signs are clear when sti 2560 breaks.

Sold Positions


EzionHlgs 0.735 (bgt 0.740), can't get pass resistance at 0.755 forming double top
CSE 0.69 (bgt 0.70), 0.685 broke after I sold.
PEC 0.72 (bgt 0.73), should not have gamble on new counter, no CHART

Existing Position

Capcom

New day - Pennies Play

Mercator Lines

Levels: 0.335, 0.345, 0.38

Capitacomm

levels 0.87, 0.905

Position Update

With sti 2630 in mind, I sold off Rotary having to pay commission.

Sold Positions

Rotary 1.13 (bgt 1.13)
Tat Hong 1.23 (bgt 1.13)

Existing Position

EzionHlgs
CSE

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

New Buy Calls for HighRisk Takers

China Zaino
levels 0.245, 0.26, 0.29


JayaHlgs
Levels 0.44

STI 2630 broke, target 2486

If you are still buying look at this first

Hourly chart for STI for past few days. Does it look bad?




Kia bo? Let me show u a longer term one. History will repeat itself?


DO NOT BUY

The big GUMMMI Bear in in town. I try to fight the bear end up internal injuries.

Sold Position


Yanlord 2.81 (bgt 2.87)
YZJ 0.925 (bgt 0.94)

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Watch these Babes

I am watching the 2 most powerful and kelong stocks in STI (Wilmar & Yanlord).
I think Wilmar will be a 10 dollar stock in 1-2 years time.

Tat Hong


1.06, 1.14, 1.24

Yanlord

2.81, 2.92

Wilmar

5.84, 6.25

RafflesEdu

0.62, 0.645, 0.67


I will pounce on any weakness on these:

CDLHtrust
1.09, 1.33

Rotary
1.02, 1.15

Jaya
0.425, 0.51

Monday, August 3, 2009

Position Update - sti 2700

Be careful, we are at the Aug 08 level. Many people will sell at this point because they are stucked previously. Market will only move higher after clearing these sellers.

I have decided to liquidate ALL my positions. Market need a good shower correction. I WILL BE BACK.

Sold Positions


EzionHldgs 0.745 (bgt 0.735), Spot on
WingTai 1.80 (bgt 1.77), Spot on
NOL 1.79 (bgt 1.77), should have sold 1.80
YZJ 0.925 (bgt 0.935), false breakout
ASLMarine 0.99 (bgt 1.005), Spot on. broke support 0.98
Allgreen 1.19 (bgt 1.23), I saw it coming but too late to react when 1.20 support broke
Tat Hong 1.11 (bgt 1.13) Neutral

Existing Positions

NONE

Triangle Formation Theory

Ascending Triangle

The ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, which gives an indication that the price of the security is headed higher upon completion. The pattern is formed by two trendlines: a flat trendline being a point of resistance and an ascending trendline acting as a price support.

The price of the security moves between these trendlines until it eventually breaks out to the upside. This pattern will typically be preceded by an upward trend, which makes it a continuation pattern; however, it can be found during a downtrend.




Descending Triangle

The descending triangle is the opposite of the ascending triangle in that it gives a bearish signal to chartists, suggesting that the price will trend downward upon completion of the pattern. The descending triangle is constructed with a flat support line and a downward-sloping resistance line.

Similar to the ascending triangle, this pattern is generally considered to be a continuation pattern, as it is preceded by a downward trendline. But again, it can be found in an uptrend.


Cup & Handle Formation Theory


This pattern is a tea cup on a chart. This is a bullish continuation pattern where the upward trend has paused, and traded down, but will continue in an upward direction upon the completion of the pattern. This pattern can range from several months to a year, but its general form remains the same.

The cup-and-handle pattern is preceded by an upward move, which stalls and sells off. The sell-off is what forms the initial part of this pattern. After the sell-off, the security will basically trade flat for an extended period of time, with no clear trend. The next part of the pattern is the upward move back towards the peak of the preceding upward move. The last part of the pattern, known as the handle, is a relatively smaller downward move before the security moves higher and continues the previous trend.

The general rule is that the handle's downward movement can retrace one-third of the gain made in the right side of the cup. During this downward move, a descending trendline can be drawn, which forms the signal for the breakout. A move by the security above this descending trendline is a signal that the prior upward trend is set to begin.

Wedge Formation Theory

Falling Wedge

The falling wedge is a generally bullish pattern signaling that one will likely see the price break upwards through the wedge and move into an uptrend. The trendlines of this pattern converge, with both being slanted in a downward direction as the price is trading in a downtrend.




Rising Wedge


Conversely, a rising wedge is a bearish pattern that signals that the security is likely to head in a downward direction. The trendlines of this pattern converge, with both trendlines slanted in an upward direction.



Gap Fill Theory

Technically, all gap fills should be filled. The gaps could be big or small, its doesn't matter. If gap is filled, buying or shorting opportunities will present itself.

Jaya Holdings (big)

Totally missed out on this one. T5 is the date to look out for potential buying.


Wingtai (small)

Small gap fill at 1.68 to 1.75

Its going to be exciting

Breaking or broke


Federal
Levels: 0.3, 0.33, 0.35, 0.39



ASL Marine
Levels: 0.935, 0.98, 1.04, 1.07



Sunday, August 2, 2009

CandleSticks Basic



Position Update

Asl Marine 0.955 (bgt 0.94)
EzionHlgs 0.73 (bgt 0.71)
Swissco 0.655 (bgt 0.665)
RafflesEdu 0.66 (bgt 0.65)
Olam 2.57 (bgt 2.60)

Existing Positions

EzionHlgs
NOL
WINgtai

New week- O&G stocks

ASL Marine

Levels: 0.915, 0.93, 0.98

Swissco

Levels: 0.64, 0.67

EzionHlgs

Levels: 0.685, 0.745, 0.790