Why is $$ always not enough?

I have read a chinese article and decided to translate it. I have added some juices to it.

"Money not enough" is common phrase among Singaporeans. There is even a local popular local firm named after it by Jack Neo. Seriously, why does people always say that? From my personal view, there basically 5 reasons.

1) Overstretching housing loan
90% of Singaporeans owns their own house in which 80% of them have HDB or EC flats. This is a compliment to the Singapore government efficiency in implementing "Everyone has a house" and "Buying house using CPF" policies. If you rent a house, you need to use CASH but if you are buying your own house, CPF comes in handy. For the same reason of using the "invisible" CPF, a lot of people don't really have proper budgeting. According to experts, your monthly installment should not exceed 35% of your total income. For instance, if you are earning $5000 monthly, the maximum installment works out to be $1750. Instead of adhering to the 35% taboo, a lot of people overstretch to 50% or more, especially given the soaring home prices. In the end, these people only have 50% to spend on personal expenses, children, insurance, their education and their saving. According to a survey by Oxford University Institute of Ageing, 90% of Singaporeans thinks they are not ready for retirement in terms of financial. The government just raise the retirement age to 75. How many of you still want to work when you have reach that age? This is the man Achilles heel for Singaporean's plight of money not enough.

2) High Car Maintenance

1 out of 3 Singaporeans owns a car. More Singaporeans are buying car because of faltering COE prices previously. Figures from LTA shows that the percentage of public transport users drop from 63% in 2004 to 59% in 2008. Frankly, accessibility in Singapore is almost perfect and since it is such a small country, there's little reason to get a car. Of course, a lot of people buy car just to show off their STATUS. Millionaire JIM ROGERS who migrated to Singapore doesn't owe a car.
Desipite this, a lot of people who is earning less than $5000 monthly can't resist buying a car even if it means sacrificing their meals. You must look beyond the monthly installment before you commit to buy a car. On an average, you need $1500 monthly to maintain a normal car. This work out to be 30% of your income. On the other hand, let's say you spend $700 on public transport and taxi, you can save $800 for RETIREMENT. There a research in YAHOO news recently stating if your total family income must be at least $7650 to owe a car comfortably.

3) Earn More Spend More

If I ask you "Are you earning more now as compared to 5 years back?". Most likely your answer will be a yes. But if I ask you "Are you saving more now as compared to 5 years back?. Most people would think hard. Why?

Most people will alevate their standard of living once their income increases. (e.g changing bigger house, newer handphones, cars, etc...). If you don't kill this bad habit, even if you are earning 10 times your income now, you will still be complaining "Money not Enough". ADAM KHOO says that it is not the amount you earn that matters but is the CASH FLOW.

CASH FLOW = INCOME - EXPENSES + OTHER PASSIVE INCOMES/INVESTMENTS/BUSINESS

Do not envy those just-achieved-some-success people who die die want to have big houses and cars. They do not own all theses but the BANK does. Infact, they are only around 6 paychecks from being bankrupt. Sound familiar? Not to worry, start rectifying the equation by increasing the CASH FLOW and reducing the EXPENSES portion.

4) NO REGULAR SAVINGS

If I ask you "Do you have savings?". Most people will say yes. That's good but HOW MUCH? If you can't answer that question, it mean you need to set aside $ first before you spend. For instance, transfer $300 to another account before you spend the rest. To plan the amount you can save, you must first keep track of what you spend monthly. Start tracking you expenses on a daily basis. You can use an EXCEL worksheet to do that. Personally, I use a self-written program for these purpose. If you are interested, you can email me and i will install for you for minimal charges.

Don't save whatever that is left after you have paid all your bills.

Another good method is to save all your year end bonuses.

If you don't have saving, you can't afford not to work or become seriously ill.

Life insurance and Hospital plan should be there in case you can't work or end up in hospital.

5) Do not know how to make money using money

Many people shun off from investment or trading because they lost $ on it. Most opt to put their money in the bank. In fact, they are losing money without they knowing it. Current fixed bank interest stand at around 1%. with inflation at around 3%. They are making a loss of 2% per annum. Even if you don't know how to start, just buy some REITS that pays 5-6% per annum. For more recommendations, you can give me a note on my chat box on the right hand side.

Note that to invest, you need to fulfil the criteria of point 4. If you have no or little savings, you can't do anything.

How to know how much interest you are paying for your home loan

http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/calculators/loan-repayment.html

Handy bullish reversal chart

How to spot a potential Breakout 1: Narrowing Bollinger Band

Its means volality is at minumum as trading range narrows. Just need volume to expand to have a powerful breakout.

How to spot a potential Reversal 1: Harami bullish candlestick

http://www.fxwords.com/b/bullish-harami-candlestick.html

Why SembCorp 352 have some support

Looking for best Home Loan?

There are fixed rate and floating rate. Floating rate is based on SIBOR + n%. (Singapore Interbank Offered Rate)

SIBOR is cheap now. It is at 0.69-0.80%. But SIBOR will surge will recovery economy. It is 9% in 1998! It is updated daily.

https://secure.sgs.gov.sg/apps/msbs/domesticInterestRatesForm.jsp

Here is a website to compare the loans from different banks.

http://www.smartloans.sg/

What is the formula for Income?

Income = value created * time * scalability

Time

Let us talk about time. Many of us work from 9-5pm and you get a fixed pay monthly. But out of the 8 hours daily, how much is spend on low-quality time like emaling, chatting, complaining and doing things that is insignificant? We should spend 80% of our time on high quality work that will bring visibility and revenue to the company. Next time you boss give you a task, thing about the impact to the company and you.

How much you got to set aside for CPF minimum sum when you reaches 55

How much is the Minimum Sum?

Setting aside the Minimum Sum when you reach 55 ensures that you have some regular income from age 65 to live on in your retirement.The Minimum Sum was set at $80,000 in 2003 and will be raised gradually until it reaches $120,000 (in 2003 dollars) in 2013. These amounts will be adjusted yearly for inflation.

If you are unable to set aside your full Minimum Sum in cash, your property, bought with your CPF savings, will be automatically pledged for up to half of your Minimum Sum.

http://mycpf.cpf.gov.sg/CPF/my-cpf/reach-55/Reach55-2.htm

The minimum medi-save account is raised to $25000.

Don't lose your Confidence

The most powerful thing next to God, its the word of the mouth. When God created the world, He spoke His words. Similarly, words of our mouth is powerful. Self-confession is speaking to yourself. Everyday confess to yourself before you start your day:

1. I am the Head and not the tail, above and not beneath.
2. This is going to be the best day.

Don't let losers who speaks negative things about you that would affect your self-confidence. They did it to make themselves feel good or for their personal agenda. Similarly, only speaks editifying words to colleagues and friends - you will find yourself having more friends.

Remember your self-esteem determines your self-confidence. Start today by self-confessing positive thoughts daily. Don't let others dictate it but be in control. Self-confidence is the base for greater things to come.

Singaporeans in their 40s

Extract from somewhere.

http://singaporeanskeptic.blogspot.com

Regular viewer of the blog John sent me an email about the situation for Singaporeans in their 40s.

Hi Skeptic,

I wrote on your blog not too long ago on how to find job overseas. I recently went back to visit my parents and catch up with friends. Although it was a short trip, I left Singapore with a rather heavy heart. Maybe it is just me, as I have been away for a while. The conversations I had with friends, strangers and various contacts do suggest that life is tough for Singaporeans in the early 40s. However, the people I spoke to may not be representative of the population. Maybe you have a different view on this matter and I like to hear a different perspective.

1) I was speaking to a nice taxi driver on my way from the airport to my parents' place. The taxi driver uncle was very polite and speaks very well. I found out that he used to be an Assistant GM for a manufacturing plant (electronics) in Singapore which had to be shut down and relocated to China. He is 45 and has two kids still in school. His job search took more than 2 years and he decided to drive taxi as an interim measure to keep the income coming while he continue his job search. His comments: " when you are in your 40s, you better make sure you either at the top of your profession, CEO, or running your business. If you are in the middle management level, most headhunters will not be interested in you unless you have very specialized domain knowledge or expertise. "

2) I spoke to a friends of mine in a dinner setting. (age group 38-41) Most of them are senior executives (VP level) at various industries. I asked them a question, " do you see yourself keeping your job when you hit 45?" Most of them were not too optimistic about it. My friends are in sales and HR in various industries, software, IT, telecom, manufacturing etc. Their responses were quite similar. If you don't make it to senior management level, say at director level or above, chances of you keeping your job above 45 is going to be tough. How many people make it to the top? For the singles, adjustment is less of an issue as the smart ones would have amassed some cash and property that will help them through the winter years. However, at 45, the winter years is going to be very, very long given the average life expetancy these days. For those who are married with kids still in School, it will be very tough. Most of them would not have enough for early retirement and options are limited at that age. It seems strange to me that if only the senior executives (director, business owners, CEO) get to keep their job above 50, then where are those people who are not the same calibre at that age group? For people in the HR and accounting professions, I told them there is still lots of demand in China, if they are willing to take local package and rough it out for a couple of years. Many were surprised that some jobs in China pays better than Singapore. However, most of them expressed reluctuance to work abroad and not willing to be away from family for an extended period of time. I can only conclude that my friends are not hungry enough and life is probably still tolerable for now.

3) with the exceptions of the high fliers and those in the comfortable government jobs, it seems that 45 is roughly the cut off age for meaningful employment. Past that age, the income level will start dropping and it will be difficult to hold on to long term meaningful employment. How many of us have enough for retirement at 45? How many of us are planning for things to keep themselves busy while making some income beyond 45? What are the options available in Singapore at that age besides driving taxi, McDonalds and 'consultancy'. The latter being a euphemisum for being unemployed. However, many people don't seem to be worried until it hits them by surprise and it becomes too late to do anything.

I don't have solutions, but I think if we are start thinking about such issues early, we will be better equipped to deal with it when it comes.

Skeptic, have you come across similar issues in the past?

Best Regards,

John

This is one part where I agree with Lee Kuan Yew. We Singaporeans are complacent. As children we constantly worry about our future until we graduate and get our first job. We then stop worrying about our future at the time when we should be planning ahead. And we resume worrying in our late 40s onwards when it is too late (after spending 20 years on auto-pilot).

Why do I say so? Because in your 20s, you have have more resources to protect yourself. Firstly, your social network is not yet set in stone. It is easier for a young person to move around and network compared to a 40 year old former manager looking for a job. It is also easier to form positive habits when one is younger.

So this is what I would do to protect myself. It is no guarantee that it will always work but I think it is better than nothing.

Money Investment
1. First save as much money as possible. This means deferred gratification. This is especially hard in our materialistic society. Furthermore, housing is expensive and CPF is low return so that would prove to be hard. One possible way to get around that is to relocate out of Singapore.

2. The second thing is to try to develop passive sources of income and make sure they are safe. Maybe use your money to buy dividend producing blue-chip stocks or A rated bonds. Go for stability of income rather than high yield.

Social Investment
3. This is something that Singaporeans are not very good at. But you should network early when you still have a job. That means volunteering, join the grass-roots or some club. It is better if you establish firm contacts outside your comfort zone. If you are working as an engineer, network with lawyers. If you are a teacher, network with businessmen etc.. This would give you more mobility when you need to switch fields. You should network early. The last thing you want is to attend a networking session for jobless 40 year olds who merely exchange business cards but find no meaningful contacts.

4.Do not burn any bridges. So what does this mean? If you are a boss. Be nice to everyone, you never know when your subordinates may help you in the future when you get retrenched. Whether they are at a lower or higher position than you, treat everyone nicely.

Skills Investment
5. You have to be careful with this one. Unless you are in a field which requires constant updating of skills like doctor or computer engineer, it would make more sense to upgrade your social-networking skills. You could potentially gain more from volunteering in church/grass-roots than doing a correspondence course unknown MBA; which I think is a waste of time and money. But whatever it is, don't upgrade for the sake of upgrading. Some of these courses are pretty useless. Choose it carefully. Take courses where there is a high barrier to entry. So a CPA would be more useful than a course that teaches you how to use Microsoft Word.

Health Investment
6. Make sure you take care of your health. What could be worse than a retrenched 40 year old man is a retrenched 40 year old man with hypertension and diabetes. If you are of poor health in your 40s, how are you going to compete with a man in his 20s?

Insurance
7. I do not know about Singapore. But in the US, there is such a thing known as unemployment insurance which help smooths your cash-flow when you get retrenched.

8. Health Insurance- this one is pretty obvious.

9. Life Insurance- Not so much for you but for your kids. (applies to married people only)

Risk Taking
10. Finally, you should be prepared to take calculated risk when you are young and venture abroad. Ask your company for a transfer, study overseas. Strike it on your own. The Singapore job market is a small well. Do you want to be a frog in the well for your entire life?

I want to state that it is easier said than done. I am speaking as someone who doesn't have a family or live in Singapore but this is what I would do. Furthermore, I must admit that I am still young and inexperienced so some of the things I say can be taken with a pinch of salt.

So John this is what I would do to have some level of protection. Thank you very much for your comments. I hope we heed his warning calls about life at 40.

People review and 10,000 hours Theory

Group 1: Alot of talk no action
These are people who will never fail because they fail to start anything. They would give excuses like "no money", "no time", "no connections" and so on. As a result, they led a mediocre life. No risk but safe.

Group 2:Alot of action but same strategy
These are people who is slightly better as in they never stop to try after they failed multiple times. For instance, they keep losing $ in stock market but they would keep trying without new strategies.

Group 3:Alot of action after reviewing
This is the best group. After they have failed, they will never give up but will keeping reviewing and fine tuning his strategy until he has achieved success. It involved alot of hard works and perseverance. From research, a man needs to cross the 10,000 hours mark before succeeding. Steve Jobs, Apple Chairman and Bill Gates, Microsoft Chairman was programming for more than 10,000 hours on their computers before they made the breakthrough. Few people know they are Programming experts.

I will leave with the story of 2 of greatest men alive I have admired.

Sim Mong Woo, Creative Chairman
He is only a diploma graduate from Ngee Ann Polytechnics. When he first started out, he wants to build his own multimedia PC called Cubic CT. This PC was costly and was a complete failure. What did Mr Sim do? He fine tuned his strategy and decided that people can't afford such costly products. He decided to build only a sound card which is only part of his old Cubic CT. Today, look what his product has brought him.

Steve Jobs, Apple Chairman
He was a school dropout. He was pursuing his interest in computer graphic fonts in his home garage while other people are schooling. He started Apple Inc and was doing great until he decided he needs a CEO to run the company. As a result, he employed John Scully as CEO. John and his directors kicked Steve out of the very own company he had started because they found him difficult to worked with. What did Steve do? He can give up or can go on to sue John Scully and his gang. Instead, he started NEXT computer but was not successful. Next, he bought over Pixar Animation at dirt cheap price, when other don't see the potential of the company. This company successfully produced The Toy Story. The rest is history.

Apple meanwhile was swinging from profit to losses. They brought back Steve and he immediately sacked those unproductive executives. He also bring in the Operating System he has written during his time at NEXT computer and named it MAC OS. He also came up with innovative products like iPhone, iMac and so on. Today Apple Inc share price is closing on USD 200.

Breakout Stocks > powerful then picking bottom

Ezra breaks 2.16 (sold at 2.10)
Indo break 2.00 (Missed it)
Kepland breaks 3.18 (Sold 3.11 and bought back 3.16)
Parkway breaks 2.71

Can't chase liao.

Look out for

Genting cut loss 1.05
Suntec cut loss 1.25
SMM cut loss 3.5

Wilmar looks good

Cut 6.23

new calls

Parkway
Capland
Olam

STI premiership contenders and Div 1 Contenders

Besides the blues, these are the counters I fancy that would be potential STI components. It make sense to hold on to them. If they ever get promoted, remember you have seen it here.

• Ezra
• Kepland
• Parkway
• RafflesMG
• IndoArgri
  

Division 1 Champions(Pennies)

• CSE Global
• EzionHlgs

The Proxy Theory

Alot of times, it unwise to chase stocks that has ran alot maybe because of stirling results or acquisitions. Deep down inside, you feel like banging walls for not following your heart and buy it in the first place. This is the emotion turmoil a trader would go through time to time.

Don't look back anymore!!! Let me introduce the Proxy Theory.

For instance:
a) SembMar (SMM) has soar to 3.50 while its mother share Sembcorp Industries(SCI) is at 3.30. You should take Sembcorp Industries as a proxy. SCI owns 40%-60% of SMM.

b) EzionHlgs has been promoted to the STI mainbaord from Catalyst board. Its most recent profit has soared 140%. If you have missed out on this gem, no worries there's always Ezra which owns 16% of EzionHlgs.

c) Kepcorp owns substantial amount of Kepland and KepT&T. KepT&T owns part of M1.

How to choose stocks to invest and avoid $$ stuckers

Always invest in those with unbroken upward trendline. They may be slow but they are steady. Even if your get stuck, you can be sure they will bring profit over time.
Some recommended stocks are:

Biosensors

RafflesMG
Ezra


NobleGrp
Other good stocks are mostly blues, you can't really go wrong with blues. For example,
Olam, Wilmar, Gent, DBS, SGX, SembMar, SembCorp, KepCorp, CapLand and Kepland.


Contradictary avoid these potential money stuckers. Notice there is a major trend change to downwards. Look out for trend change. These stocks are for traders to buy at lower trendline and sell at upper trendline to make a quick bite. ALL china stocks is a NO NO.

NOL

SAR
Some others in these categories are:
Rotary, Starhub, Singtel, Tat Hong, FalconE, YingLi

Some stocks analysis

Ezra
Sembmar

Sinktel (better take a look before u buy it)

Managing Your Money Need Not Be A Headache

Source: Universal Publishing Service

Are your debts mounting each month? Are you finding it harder to juggle the bills? Do you find yourself relying on cash advances on your credit cards to get you through your pay day? Anne Starke shares 10 tips on how to navigate through credit crunch as painlessly as possible.

Fretting over unpaid bills is a terrible energy-sapper. Money worries hang over your head, undermining your self-confidence and your sense of security.

But things usually aren't as bad as they seem and the worst thing you can do is accept the situation and continue living hand-to-mouth, day-to-day.

Regardless of age or income, everyone has the potential to be financially secure, and to enjoy the self confidence and feelings of personal power that come with it. It is not a matter of earning higher wages, but of working smarter with what you've got. Work out your budget woes with these tips:

1. Stay calm
If it looks like there is no way out of the maze of bills, stay calm. After all, it is only money. Lots of people and many businesses face a credit squeeze at some stage and most work their way out of it. The important thing is to have a plan – and follow it through.

2. Is the crisis short-term or critical?
Work out if your difficulties are only temporary or if it is a long-term problem, such as illness, loss of your job or possible bankruptcy. If it is a major crisis, you may need professional help immediately. Contact your lawyer, accountant or your friendly bank officer.

3. Will your credit rating be affected?
Do your best to protect your credit rating. If you are downgraded, it could jeopardise your chances of obtaining a loan in the future.

4. Work out which bills to pay first
When cash is tight, you need to set priorities as to which bills to pay first. Check which unpaid bills are likely to affect your credit rating. For example, a friendly landlord might allow you to pay the rent a week or two late, but a default on the electricity account will not only put you in darkness – it could mean a black mark on your record.

5. Money-stretchers
When money is short, you need to work with the money you have got to make it spin out as far as possible.

• List all the bills you owe.

• Note the due dates and grace periods.

• Pay your bills only at the end of their grace periods. A computer won't care that you paid on the last possible day.

• Pay only the minimum due but pay something on all of your bills. Do not pay all of one bill and only some of the other.

• Don't charge anything on a due-in-30-days basis. Try to arrange credit over a longer period of time.

• If it looks as if your money problems will last for a while send a note to the people you owe when you send part-payment. Make it brief and to the point: "I am experiencing problems that should be resolved soon. Here is part of the payment. I will pay the full amount as soon as I can."

6. Watch the cents
Until you work your way out of debt, you will need to take special care with your spending. Try to put off buying clothes or items for the house until you are on a firmer financial footing. Work out how much you can afford to put aside each week towards paying off your debts – and then work out how long it will take until you are debt-free. Now you have a personal goal to work for - that marvellous day when you won't owe anybody anything!

7. Don't be too hard on yourself
Financial fitness takes discipline but it does no good to impose too strict a budget. Chances are you won't be able to stick to it. Then, on top of everything else, you will have to deal with that depressing feeling of failing to meet your own expectations.

8. Take control
Successfully settling your debts after a spending blow-out is a big achievement. The important thing once you are debt-free is to make sure you do hot slip back into the red again. More importantly, now is the time to get your money working for you to build up financial security for the future.

9. Make money work for you
Sometimes as little as S$50 a week is enough to get you started towards building up a fat nest egg for the future. You also need to work on accumulating an emergency cash reserve. The best way to begin a plan is by learning how investments work. An understanding of the system gives you the knowledge and confidence to win. Most of the major financial planning companies run seminars that provide a useful starting point.

10. Seek professional help
Nowadays there are many different Investment products available. No one can be expected to choose from these and come up with the right answer every time. You will need help from qualified adviser. Choosing an adviser is an important decision because you should expect to be working with this person over a long period of time. She can show you the way to achieve your goals, prepare a plan – even be your motivator – but in the end your future is up to you. Your security and the lifestyle you will enjoy in the future are dependent on the financial decisions you make today.

Robert Kiyosaki: Why the Rich Get Richer

Thinking Big Is The Best Plan

Years ago, when I was just starting my real estate investing career, I came across a property with a for-sale sign on it. I called the broker and asked, "What can you tell me about the property, and how much does it cost?"

The broker politely and patiently said, "It's a commercial building with six tenants. There's a chiropractor, a dentist, a hairstylist, an accountant, and a bail bondsman. The price is two million dollars."

Losing Big

I almost choked. "Two million dollars?! That's way too expensive!"

Thirty years ago, $2 million was a lot of money. And instead of looking at the property, I let the price frighten me off. I never looked at the deal, and just assumed that the seller was crazy, greedy, and out of touch with the market.

Today, there's a luxury hotel on the same site. It's spectacular. I estimate the property to be worth at least $150 million, and maybe more.

Cheap Lessons

Not seeing the potential of that deal taught me many lessons. Here are two important ones:

• Sometimes you learn more by being stupid and making mistakes.

• The person with the better plan wins.

In the above example, my plan was just too small. In fact, the only plan I had at the time was to collect the rent money from the tenants, cover my mortgage and expenses, and put a little in my pocket. And 30 years ago, I knew that the rent from six small tenants couldn't possibly pay for a $2 million property.

I later learned that the property's eventual owner bought it for full price – with terms. He put $50,000 down as an option and asked for 180 days to put the rest of his plan together. During those 180 days, he gathered his investors, a builder, and his tenant, a major hotel chain.

If he hadn't been able to put his plan together, he would've lost his option money. Instead, before the 180 days were up, his investors paid the $2 million in cash, and he spent the next three years getting the project through the city planning commission and finally began construction. He won because he had a better plan.

Mind Expansion

Donald Trump often says to "think big." He definitely does so, but by nature, I don't. My excuse is that I come from a small town in Hawaii. My family wasn't rich, so when it comes to money, I tend to think err on the side of caution. Over time, my thinking has become medium-sized when it comes to spotting opportunities, but I'd still like to think bigger.

One of the reasons I enjoy doing business in New York and having Trump as a partner on different projects is that he makes me do just that – because if you don't think big in New York, you get kicked out. If I thought small, I wouldn't be on television, cutting book deals with major publishers, or talking in front of tens of thousands of people in arenas like Madison Square Garden.

Currently, I'm working on a real estate project to present to Donald. Consequently, I find myself pushing my thinking, expanding my context, and thinking of luxury, not just price. Even if Donald doesn't like the project and we don't partner on it, just preparing to present the project to him has required me to think bigger and come up with a better plan.

A Blast from the Past

About a year ago, someone called to say that there was a spectacular condominium that had just come up for sale. She wanted to know if I was interested in looking at it. Of course I said, "Yes." I wanted to see what her definition of spectacular was, and trust me – it was spectacular. She then said, "And the price is only twenty-eight million dollars. But I believe you can pick it up for twenty-four million. At that price, this condo is a steal."

Once again, I heard myself saying what I said so long ago: "That's too expensive." But, as I said, that lesson from 30 years back proved to be priceless: After hearing the think-small person in me comment on the condo price, I took a deep breath and asked myself, "What's my plan?" Then I asked myself, "What's wrong with my plan?"

I didn't buy the condo, but I did come up with a better plan. Over the next few days, I realized that the reason I couldn't afford the condo was because my business was too small. If I wanted to afford such a luxury residence, I needed to come up with a better plan for my business. Today, I'm working harder than ever to improve it – not because I want the condo, but to be able afford such a condo if I someday decide I want one.

Plan Ahead

In many of my Yahoo! Finance columns, I've written about my concern over the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. As the dollar drops in purchasing power, it often pushes up the prices of real assets – quality real estate and equities. My fear is that many people may not be able to afford tangible assets and become poorer as the dollar declines. This drop in purchasing power also widens the gap between the rich and everyone else.

One method of staying ahead of rising asset prices and the declining dollar is to think bigger and come up with better plans. As important as financial and business planning is a plan for personal development and self-improvement. I'm often asked to invest in people's business plans, and one of the reasons I turn many of them down is because a big plan requires a big person who's spent time on personal development. In a lot of cases, a business plan is far bigger than the person with the plan – that is, the dream is bigger than the dreamer.

Today, I'm glad I missed out on that $2 million property all those years ago. The best lesson I learned from it is that I can have a better life if I have a better plan – and a plan to become better person. So what's your plan?

Buy at ur own risk

Straits Asia
Capmall

Lee Shau-Kee buys land and is bullish

Billionaire Lee Shau-kee said he has sold as
much as 30 percent of his Hong Kong stock investments and is buying
land, betting that the city's efforts to cool home prices won't work.
Lee's Henderson Land Development Co. and partner New World
Development Co. will pay HK$9.6 billion ($1.24 billion) for a building
site, he said at a press briefing in Hong Kong yesterday. Henderson is
also spending more than HK$10 billion buying old buildings for
redevelopment.
Hong Kong luxury home prices rose 28 percent in the first nine
months of this year, according to Colliers International, while the
benchmark Hang Seng Index almost doubled. The city's government is
trying to cool the increase by tightening downpayment requirements for
luxury homes and suspending mortgage insurance for rental property. On
Oct. 14, city Chief Executive Donald Tsang expressed concern that a
property bubble may be forming.
"The new mortgage measures are not going to have much impact on
luxury home prices," said Lee, 81. "Most of those buyers are tycoons and
don't need to take up mortgages to buy." The increase in luxury prices
hasn't affected the mid- segment market, he said. An apartment larger
than 1,000 square feet (93 square meters) is categorized as luxury under
local industry standards.

DBS & SGX

1) DBS (12.94)

Levels: 12.88, 12.60

Gap Fill

Keep Cash - at least sti 2480 to fill gap

Recap STI performance for the past 4 weeks :
--- hit the ceiling at 2700 3 times
--- when Dow rise, STI refuse to go above 2700
--- when HSI surge, STI still does not past 2700

Downward A has just started.
We should see Upwave B before Downward wave C. (2480 target at least)

Stay our of pennies.

Pennies run is officially over. Some have soar 200-300%. Now is dropping time. stay out

SGX - Buy

SGX is undervalue, oversold. Expect some run-up leading to CD (0.155 per lot) on 15/10.

8.42, cut 8.22

Why you should stick with pennies?

At the moment, only < $1 stocks is moving because they are cheap and easily dispose off . Remember my last post that sti is stuck at 2630 - 2700. Only load Blues at 2630. Other than that load pennies like:

CSE Global (0.835, which is bullish)

The past week has seen EzionHlgs, Falcon, Tiong Woon moving towards $1. The trend look out for for 70-80 cents one.

Oily Chart. Watch these if you holding Oily stocks

STI outlook - Buy at 2630 and Sell at 2700

My view is sti will be stuck in the range of 2630 - 2700. Buy at 2630 and Sell at 2700

Why you should not buy these lovely ladies now.

Wilmar (50 MA set at 6.60)

Kepcorp (Bollinger Band 8.02)

Tomorrow watch these

OrchardParade
(1.07, 1.11)

New calls

Rotary


Wilmar

Wilmar ... breakout from tight range today with increasing vol. Big buyers left footprints. Likely can go higher.

Pillow Test

I would recommend that traders take the "Pillow Test" to ensure they are
able to appropriately handle a losing trade. If you feel you can put your
head down at night and sleep easily without worrying about the result of a
particular trade, than you pass the "Pillow Test" and should be in a good
position to be able to deal with a losing trade. However, if you find
yourself unable to rest your head on the pillow (and especially if you are
using the pillow as a suffocating device), you have probably taken on too
much risk and should significantly reduce your position size to the point
where you can get some sleep. Losing is a part of trading and should be
embraced. If a trader can not accept being wrong sometimes, then he is more
inclined to be wrong all of the time. We all have lives outside of our work
and need to be able to go home to our families and friends at the end of
each day knowing that we will be able to focus on what really matters.

Nimble

Rotary get near 1.21
CSE get near 0.815
Wilmar get near 6.60

Is there Hell?

http://www.av1611.org/hell.html

Beware of China Company

Cosco incurs heavy oil deratives losses-sources DJ news

another CAO situation?

Greedy Greedy Company - Rights/Share Placement

Sinotel, Oceanus, Noble, YingLi and Falcon

Latest Government Move

These measures include
1) reinstatement
of the Confirmed List for the 1st Half 2010 Government Land Sales (GLS)
Programme, more ECs will be built

2) removal of the Interest Absorption Scheme (IAS) and Interest-
Only Housing Loans (IOL), with effect from 14 Sep 2009 and

3) non-extension
of the Jan 2009 Budget assistance measures for the property market when
the measures expire.

HDB price skyrocketing...

Familiar? This is the talk of the town.

So far I hear only rubbish on the high price of HDB flats. The letter by HDB deputy CEO is logical and reasonable, yet it cannot calm the anger among some Singaporeans. But who is right? ...I tell you what the problem is.

HDB has many choices for flat ranging from 2 room to executive flats. Buy the one you can afford. So what is the issue? The issue is people want big flats that they cannot afford at very good locations where land is scarce. These people are the ones who are unhappy and keep whining - they are choosy and want cheap and good. But Singapore of today is not the Singapore of 20 years ago - we are a financial center, R&D center and GDP has grown by leaps and bounds- Singapore has the highest millionaires per capita. Imagine if HDB price the flat in prime areas like Tiong Bahru below market - it will just mean more people queuing up because it is just too cheap. Is it responsible for a govt to sell tax payer's property cheaply to some people? This people can just turn around 5 years later and sell the flat in the open market and make a few hundred thousand profits for doing nothing at the expense of other tax payers. It is therefore best for the govt to price the HDB flats in relation to the market price so as to avoid creating risk-free profits for some people and not others.

The HDB cannot push HDB prices down or distort the market by regulation. There are more flats that are already held and owned by Singaporeans than property coming onto the market. The high prices benefit more Singaporeans than if artificially pushed down because most are owners rather than buyers. There are also the unfortunate people who bought in 1996 still waiting for small profit because of high interest in 1997-1998 and their high buying price, it is unfair for the govt to step in push the prices down so that a small minority can benefit. What about the thousands of aged people with fully paid HDB flats who are counting on this single asset for a better retirement.

People who are asking for lower HDB prices for selfish reasons should be told to go fly a kite. They want HDB to meet their own expectations which is wrong. HDB has to act for the benefit of the majority of Singaporeans. Prices are going up because incomes have gone up, people are optimistic about the future and in land scarce Singapore, it is an excellent investment. If HDB sell the flats cheaper and below market prices, these people can 5 yrs from now cash out with extraordinary profits at the market price and walk away with a few hundred thousand of what is taxpayers money - why should govt hand money to these people when there are poor, sick and disabled people to help.

All the noise about HDB flat prices borders on the ridiculous - they show a lack of understanding of market forces and departs from the reality...it shows a lack of flexibility in the expectations of these people because there are choices - choice they don't want to take because they insist on having the best at less than the market price.

This market is for the patient.

Come Monday, I suspect shortist will be at full force but don't think mkt will correct heavily. We will have these series of long/short squeeze that will kill both short/long traders. In fact I think, this will persist for quite a while. The trick is buy and hold good blues. After all these squeeses, we could see some light at the end of the tunnel, hopefully some handsome year-end bonuses for those who is still alive.

Looking at chances to load KepCorp at 7.92 on Monday. This is a great opportunity to own 1 of best paying blues around.

Cheong Kings
#1 City Dev
#2 SGX (7% Dividend)
#3 KepCorp (8% Dividend)

Call Review - Buy commodities

Noble - Run already. Commodities are set to rise with USD going down

SGX - Still going up.

RafflesEdu - Stuck.

DBS - Slowly but surely playing catchup.

SembMar - Have not gone up. BUY and dig in.

Wilmar - Have not gone up. BUY and dig in.

Finally Can nimble some

1. Noble (cut 2.06)

2. Raffles (cut 0.515)

3. SGX (cut 8.24)

4. DBS (cut 12.60)

5. SembMar (cut 3.05)

STI textbook Elliot Wave

Alert, sell all by 2700.

http://sites.google.com/site/ksericpro/home/st

When to Enter/Exit using divergence

Notice when the red arrows move away from each other (aka higher price , lower strength), the share price usually plunged after that?

Notice when the blue arrows move towards each other (aka lower price, higher strength), the share prices usually rally after that ?

Buy Property Cannot Go Wrong One?

If you thinking of entering into the property market, here are 6 flaws to take note.
I read it in today's paper, so just write here for those thinking of buying one.

1) Never do Homework


One 99-years lease mass-market condo outside D9, D10 and D11 priced at 1150psf! Those who rush in obviously didn't do much or zero homework. There are other condos priced around 900psf near vicinity. If they bought at 1150psf, how much they hope to sell?


2) Paying Higher than market valuation

Selling price doesn't equal to bank valuation. If you bought a property for$ 900k, hoping for bank to loan you the 80%, better check what is the bank's valuation first. The bank would only loan 80% of its own market valuation of the property you bought. In this case if they value the property at $800k, shortfall will occur.

3) Paying Deposit without Loan Approval

Its better to get a loan-in-principle from a bank before you place a deposit of 5%. A rough gauge, if your family income is $8000, then the maximum loan a bank could lend you is 100 times which works out to be $800,000.

4) No Ready/Backup Cash

Many of the specu-vestor/investor thinks that they can use the rental yield to offset the monthly instalment. In ideal case, it works if rental do not flucuate too much. If rental income falls or worse no tenants, you do need to have ready cash to tide through.

5) Interest do not stay the same

In fact housing floating interest based on SIBOR or SOR rates increase with economies. Low interest rate at 2% plus a fixed amount today will increase with a picking-up economy. At the peak of 2007, interest rate could go up as high as 4% plus a fixed amount.

6) Hat too big

Your monthly instalment should not be above 35% of your family income. A $1 million property loan should be back up be a $12,000 family income.

Elliot Wave Revelation

Wow I have learnt something new using the power of elliot wave.




Click here for FULL article

RUN for your Life

With sti plunging 85 points yesterday and DOW dropping 186 last night, we could see sti drop to 2486-2500. If you are brave enough, nimble some. If2486 breaks, cut loss.

New Calls - Stay out First watch

New Calls

RafflesEdu
levels:0 62, 0.645, 0.675

Parkway
levels: 1.86

Rotary
levels:1.10, 1.18

CDLHTrust
levels:1.03, 1.07

Sold Positions

Wilmar 6.35 (bgt 6.54), 1 lot test water
ASLMarine 1.045 (bgt 0.999167)
CrapLand 3.61 (bgt 3.67)
Wingtai 1.57 (bgt 1.67)

Position Update

Sold Positions

Capland 3.73 (bgt 3.69)
Olam 2.59 (bgt 2.515)
Rotary 1.16 (bgt 1.10625)
Yanlord 2.51 (bgt 2.53)
NOL 1.70 (bgt 1.71)
Ezra 1.34 (bgt 1.35)

Existing Positions

EzionHlgs
Wingtai
ASL Marine

Position Update

Sold Position

Jaya 0.48 (bgt 0.47)
Tat Hong 1.23 (bgt 1.21)

Existing Position

Rotary
Capland
Olam
Yanlord
NOL

Buy CAPLAND and YANLORD first thing in the morning

buy first ask later

CAPLAND
levels 3.51, 3.6, 3.7

YANLORD
levels: 2.44, 2.5


Pls see site below for charts. Blogger buggy.

http://sites.google.com/site/ksericpro/stocks-in-focus

Position Update - That's it I am staying out

I am cashing out. Market very bearish. Kana Internal Injuries so got to recuperate. Lose 4 days in a row, no joke.

Sold Positions

Capland 3.69 (bgt 3.73)
DBS 12.68 (bgt 12.78)
Yanlord 2.46 (bgt 2.5225)
CapCom 0.875 (bgt 0.8795)

Position Update

Taking bluechips.

DBS
Capland
Yanlord

Sold Positions
Wilmar 6.21 (bgt 6.28)

Only for risk takers

Properties and banks are battered, should see some revenge from them.

Capitaland
levels: 3.51, 3.75, 3.83, 3.89, 4
DBS
levels: 12.34, 12.5, 12.8, 13, 13.7
Olam
levels: 2.28, 2.37, 2.40, 2.55
RaffleEdu
levels: 0.60, 0.62, 0.645
UOB
levels: 15.7, 15.94
Sinktel
levels: 3.09, 3.16, 3.31. 3.5

Another reason is best to sides

HSI



STI

5 fatal flaws of traders

Five Fatal Flaws of Trading

By Jeffrey Kennedy


Close to ninety percent of all traders lose money. The remaining ten percent somehow manage to either break even or even turn a profit – and more importantly, do it consistently. How do they do that?

That's an age-old question. While there is no magic formula, one of Elliott Wave International's senior instructors Jeffrey Kennedy has identified five fundamental flaws that, in his opinion, stop most traders from being consistently successful. We don't claim to have found The Holy Grail of trading here, but sometimes a single idea can change a person's life. Maybe you'll find one in Jeffrey's take on trading? We sincerely hope so.

Why Do Traders Lose?

If you’ve been trading for a long time, you no doubt have felt that a monstrous, invisible hand sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. It doesn’t seem to matter how many books you buy, how many seminars you attend or how many hours you spend analyzing price charts, you just can’t seem to prevent that invisible hand from depleting your trading account funds.

Which brings us to the question: Why do traders lose? Or maybe we should ask, 'How do you stop the Hand?' Whether you are a seasoned professional or just thinking about opening your first trading account, the ability to stop the Hand is proportional to how well you understand and overcome the Five Fatal Flaws of trading. For each fatal flaw represents a finger on the invisible hand that wreaks havoc with your trading account.

Fatal Flaw No. 1 – Lack of Methodology

If you aim to be a consistently successful trader, then you must have a defined trading methodology, which is simply a clear and concise way of looking at markets. Guessing or going by gut instinct won’t work over the long run. If you don’t have a defined trading methodology, then you don’t have a way to know what constitutes a buy or sell signal. Moreover, you can’t even consistently correctly identify the trend.

How to overcome this fatal flaw? Answer: Write down your methodology. Define in writing what your analytical tools are and, more importantly, how you use them. It doesn’t matter whether you use the Wave Principle, Point and Figure charts, Stochastics, RSI or a combination of all of the above. What does matter is that you actually take the effort to define it (i.e., what constitutes a buy, a sell, your trailing stop and instructions on exiting a position). And the best hint I can give you regarding developing a defined trading methodology is this: If you can’t fit it on the back of a business card, it’s probably too complicated.

Fatal Flaw No. 2 – Lack of Discipline

When you have clearly outlined and identified your trading methodology, then you must have the discipline to follow your system. A Lack of Discipline in this regard is the second fatal flaw. If the way you view a price chart or evaluate a potential trade setup is different from how you did it a month ago, then you have either not identified your methodology or you lack the discipline to follow the methodology you have identified. The formula for success is to consistently apply a proven methodology. So the best advice I can give you to overcome a lack of discipline is to define a trading methodology that works best for you and follow it religiously.

Fatal Flaw No. 3 – Unrealistic Expectations

Between you and me, nothing makes me angrier than those commercials that say something like, "...$5,000 properly positioned in Natural Gas can give you returns of over $40,000..." Advertisements like this are a disservice to the financial industry as a whole and end up costing uneducated investors a lot more than $5,000. In addition, they help to create the third fatal flaw: Unrealistic Expectations.

Yes, it is possible to experience above-average returns trading your own account. However, it’s difficult to do it without taking on above-average risk. So what is a realistic return to shoot for in your first year as a trader – 50%, 100%, 200%? Whoa, let’s rein in those unrealistic expectations. In my opinion, the goal for every trader their first year out should be not to lose money. In other words, shoot for a 0% return your first year. If you can manage that, then in year two, try to beat the Dow or the S&P. These goals may not be flashy but they are realistic, and if you can learn to live with them – and achieve them – you will fend off the Hand.

Fatal Flaw No. 4 – Lack of Patience

The fourth finger of the invisible hand that robs your trading account is Lack of Patience. I forget where, but I once read that markets trend only 20% of the time, and, from my experience, I would say that this is an accurate statement. So think about it, the other 80% of the time the markets are not trending in one clear direction.

That may explain why I believe that for any given time frame, there are only two or three really good trading opportunities. For example, if you’re a long-term trader, there are typically only two or three compelling tradable moves in a market during any given year. Similarly, if you are a short-term trader, there are only two or three high-quality trade setups in a given week.

All too often, because trading is inherently exciting (and anything involving money usually is exciting), it’s easy to feel like you’re missing the party if you don’t trade a lot. As a result, you start taking trade setups of lesser and lesser quality and begin to over-trade.

How do you overcome this lack of patience? The advice I have found to be most valuable is to remind yourself that every week, there is another trade-of-the-year. In other words, don’t worry about missing an opportunity today, because there will be another one tomorrow, next week and next month ... I promise.

I remember a line from a movie (either Sergeant York with Gary Cooper or The Patriot with Mel Gibson) in which one character gives advice to another on how to shoot a rifle: 'Aim small, miss small.' I offer the same advice in this new context. To aim small requires patience. So be patient, and you’ll miss small."

Fatal Flaw No. 5 – Lack of Money Management

The final fatal flaw to overcome as a trader is a Lack of Money Management, and this topic deserves more than just a few paragraphs, because money management encompasses risk/reward analysis, probability of success and failure, protective stops and so much more. Even so, I would like to address the subject of money management with a focus on risk as a function of portfolio size.

Now the big boys (i.e., the professional traders) tend to limit their risk on any given position to 1% - 3% of their portfolio. If we apply this rule to ourselves, then for every $5,000 we have in our trading account, we can risk only $50-$150 on any given trade. Stocks might be a little different, but a $50 stop in Corn, which is one point, is simply too tight a stop, especially when the 10-day average trading range in Corn recently has been more than 10 points. A more plausible stop might be five points or 10, in which case, depending on what percentage of your total portfolio you want to risk, you would need an account size between $15,000 and $50,000.

Simply put, I believe that many traders begin to trade either under-funded or without sufficient capital in their trading account to trade the markets they choose to trade. And that doesn’t even address the size that they trade (i.e., multiple contracts).

To overcome this fatal flaw, let me expand on the logic from the 'aim small, miss small' movie line. If you have a small trading account, then trade small. You can accomplish this by trading fewer contracts, or trading e-mini contracts or even stocks. Bottom line, on your way to becoming a consistently successful trader, you must realize that one key is longevity. If your risk on any given position is relatively small, then you can weather the rough spots. Conversely, if you risk 25% of your portfolio on each trade, after four consecutive losers, you’re out all together.

Break the Hand’s Grip

Trading successfully is not easy. It’s hard work ... darn hard. And if anyone leads you to believe otherwise, run the other way, and fast. But this hard work can be rewarding, above-average gains are possible and the sense of satisfaction one feels after a few nice trades is absolutely priceless. To get to that point, though, you must first break the fingers of the Hand that is holding you back and stealing money from your trading account. I can guarantee that if you attend to the five fatal flaws I’ve outlined, you won’t be caught red-handed stealing from your own account.

No buy call till sti 2486

STI today totally buang, stay out until further notice. Lost 2 days continuously, had to tie my hands liao. Those still holding Singtel, Look out for support at 3.09

Position Update

Really have to wait till sti 2486. Suffer bruises and cut today , preserve your capital and fight another day. The signs are clear when sti 2560 breaks.

Sold Positions

EzionHlgs 0.735 (bgt 0.740), can't get pass resistance at 0.755 forming double top
CSE 0.69 (bgt 0.70), 0.685 broke after I sold.
PEC 0.72 (bgt 0.73), should not have gamble on new counter, no CHART

Existing Position

Capcom

New day - Pennies Play

Mercator Lines

Levels: 0.335, 0.345, 0.38

Capitacomm

levels 0.87, 0.905

Position Update

With sti 2630 in mind, I sold off Rotary having to pay commission.

Sold Positions

Rotary 1.13 (bgt 1.13)
Tat Hong 1.23 (bgt 1.13)

Existing Position

EzionHlgs
CSE

New Buy Calls for HighRisk Takers

China Zaino
levels 0.245, 0.26, 0.29


JayaHlgs
Levels 0.44

STI 2630 broke, target 2486

If you are still buying look at this first

Hourly chart for STI for past few days. Does it look bad?




Kia bo? Let me show u a longer term one. History will repeat itself?

DO NOT BUY

The big GUMMMI Bear in in town. I try to fight the bear end up internal injuries.

Sold Position

Yanlord 2.81 (bgt 2.87)
YZJ 0.925 (bgt 0.94)

Watch these Babes

I am watching the 2 most powerful and kelong stocks in STI (Wilmar & Yanlord).
I think Wilmar will be a 10 dollar stock in 1-2 years time.

Tat Hong

1.06, 1.14, 1.24

Yanlord

2.81, 2.92

Wilmar

5.84, 6.25

RafflesEdu

0.62, 0.645, 0.67


I will pounce on any weakness on these:

CDLHtrust
1.09, 1.33

Rotary
1.02, 1.15

Jaya
0.425, 0.51

Position Update - sti 2700

Be careful, we are at the Aug 08 level. Many people will sell at this point because they are stucked previously. Market will only move higher after clearing these sellers.

I have decided to liquidate ALL my positions. Market need a good shower correction. I WILL BE BACK.

Sold Positions

EzionHldgs 0.745 (bgt 0.735), Spot on
WingTai 1.80 (bgt 1.77), Spot on
NOL 1.79 (bgt 1.77), should have sold 1.80
YZJ 0.925 (bgt 0.935), false breakout
ASLMarine 0.99 (bgt 1.005), Spot on. broke support 0.98
Allgreen 1.19 (bgt 1.23), I saw it coming but too late to react when 1.20 support broke
Tat Hong 1.11 (bgt 1.13) Neutral

Existing Positions

NONE

Triangle Formation Theory

Ascending Triangle

The ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, which gives an indication that the price of the security is headed higher upon completion. The pattern is formed by two trendlines: a flat trendline being a point of resistance and an ascending trendline acting as a price support.

The price of the security moves between these trendlines until it eventually breaks out to the upside. This pattern will typically be preceded by an upward trend, which makes it a continuation pattern; however, it can be found during a downtrend.



Descending Triangle

The descending triangle is the opposite of the ascending triangle in that it gives a bearish signal to chartists, suggesting that the price will trend downward upon completion of the pattern. The descending triangle is constructed with a flat support line and a downward-sloping resistance line.

Similar to the ascending triangle, this pattern is generally considered to be a continuation pattern, as it is preceded by a downward trendline. But again, it can be found in an uptrend.